# ou have semi-annual data from 1991.1 through 1993.2 (so 6 observations) with Quantity values of 1.5, and 3.3 for each period in sequence.

ou have semi-annual data from 1991.1 through 1993.2 (so 6 observations) with Quantity values of 1.8, 2.4, 2.2, 2.8, 2.5, and 3.3 for each period in sequence.

Your simple trend regression estimate using Excel is Q = 1.66 + 0.24*Trend. The standard error for the 1.66 estimate is 0.26, the standard error for the 0.24 estimate is 0.07, and the adjusted R squared is 0.71.

Your trend regression with seasonal dummy estimate using Excel is Q = 2.03 + 0.20*Trend – 0.47*DUM1 where DUM1 is a dummy variable = 1 if observation is in 1st half of a year and 0 if in 2nd half of a year. The standard error for the 2.03 estimate is 0.07, for the 0.20 estimate it is .02, for the -0.47 estimate it is .06, and the adjusted R squared is 0.98.

If you use the simple trend estimate, your forecasted value for 1995.1 (1st half of 1995) is ____

Question options:

a)

2.9

b)

3.8

c)

3.2

d)

3.5

Question 11

0 / 1 point

You have semi-annual data from 1991.1 through 1993.2 (so 6 observations) with Quantity values of 1.8, 2.4, 2.2, 2.8, 2.5, and 3.3 for each period in sequence.

Your simple trend regression estimate using Excel is Q = 1.66 + 0.24*Trend. The standard error for the 1.66 estimate is 0.26, the standard error for the 0.24 estimate is 0.07, and the adjusted R squared is 0.71.

Your trend regression with seasonal dummy estimate using Excel is Q = 2.03 + 0.20*Trend – 0.47*DUM1 where DUM1 is a dummy variable = 1 if observation is in 1st half of a year and 0 if in 2nd half of a year. The standard error for the 2.03 estimate is 0.07, for the 0.20 estimate it is .02, for the -0.47 estimate it is .06, and the adjusted R squared is 0.98.

If you use the trend with seasonal dummy estimate, your forecasted value for 1995.1 (1st half of 1995) is ____

Question options:

a)

3.1

b)

3.4

c)

3.7

d)

4.0

Question 12

0 / 1 point

You have semi-annual data from 1991.1 through 1993.2 (so 6 observations) with Quantity values of 1.8, 2.4, 2.2, 2.8, 2.5, and 3.3 for each period in sequence.

Your simple trend regression estimate using Excel is Q = 1.66 + 0.24*Trend. The standard error for the 1.66 estimate is 0.26, the standard error for the 0.24 estimate is 0.07, and the adjusted R squared is 0.71.

Your trend regression with seasonal dummy estimate using Excel is Q = 2.03 + 0.20*Trend – 0.47*DUM1 where DUM1 is a dummy variable = 1 if observation is in 1st half of a year and 0 if in 2nd half of a year. The standard error for the 2.03 estimate is 0.07, for the 0.20 estimate it is .02, for the -0.47 estimate it is .06, and the adjusted R squared is 0.98.

Which statement below is incorrect given the above information?

Question options:

a)

The coefficient estimated on DUM1 and its standard error indicate you should use the seasonal dummy model for forecasting.

b)

The adjusted R squared values indicate you should use the seasonal dummy model for forecasting.

c)

You should use the simple trend model, not the seasonal dummy model, because the coefficient on DUM1 is NOT statistically significant.

d)

I would not pick this answer

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